China is forecast to produce 46.3 million mt of alumina in 2013, up 9.9% from realized output in 2012, an analyst at state nonferrous information division Beijing Antaike said Monday.

The country's alumina output totaled 42.14 million mt in 2012, just below the forecast of 42.53 million mt, the Antaike figures showed.

Antaike attributed the lower output mainly to concerns over bauxite supply that emerged in the second half of 2012, which resulted in some refiners cutting back production.

"The bauxite concerns have eased this year and there is more confidence that supply will not be a major issue. Output will also increase as more people start resuming capacity or turning online new capacity that was completed but put on hold last year," the analyst said.

Antaike estimates China's alumina production capacity totaled 58 million mt/year at the end of 2012, up 7 million mt/year from the end of 2011.

"We believe capacity is likely to edge up further by the end of this year as there are still some projects ongoing. It all depends on when they will be completed," the analyst said.